World Cup 2026 · Final stage

Road to the final

This is how the Round of 32 would look according to our match-by-match predictions. We update it as each matchday is played.

This is a projection. Until it is confirmed by real results, every matchup can change. We mark as «Confirmed» whatever is already settled. (analysis from June 26, 2026)

Published on Fri, Jun 26 at 01:08

KeyProjectionConfirmedPlayed
Left half
#732ºA vs 2ºBProjection
🇰🇷South Korea2ºA1
🇨🇦Canada2ºB1
40%
Advances🇰🇷South Korea· 55%Confidence: Medium
#741ºE vs 3º changedProjection
🇩🇪Germany1ºE2
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0
72%
Advances🇩🇪Germany· 85%Confidence: High
#751ºF vs 2ºCProjection
🇳🇱Netherlands1ºF2
🇲🇦Morocco2ºC1
45%
Advances🇳🇱Netherlands· 58%Confidence: Medium
#761ºC vs 2ºFProjection
🇧🇷Brazil1ºC2
🇯🇵Japan2ºF0
62%
Advances🇧🇷Brazil· 75%Confidence: High
#771ºI vs 3º changedProjection
🇫🇷France1ºI2
🇸🇪Sweden1
60%
Advances🇫🇷France· 72%Confidence: High
#782ºE vs 2ºI changedProjection
🇨🇮Ivory Coast2ºE1
🇳🇴Norway2ºI1
37%
Advances🇳🇴Norway· 55%Confidence: Medium
#791ºA vs 3º changedProjection
🇲🇽Mexico1ºA1
🇪🇨Ecuador1
42%
Advances🇲🇽Mexico· 55%Confidence: Medium
#801ºL vs 3º changedProjection
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England1ºL2
🇩🇿Algeria0
70%
Advances🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England· 82%Confidence: High
To the Round of 16
Right half
#811ºD vs 3º changedProjection
🇺🇸United States1ºD2
🇧🇦Bosnia1
52%
Advances🇺🇸United States· 62%Confidence: High
#821ºG vs 3º changedProjection
🇧🇪Belgium1ºG2
🇨🇿Czech Republic0
68%
Advances🇧🇪Belgium· 80%Confidence: High
#832ºK vs 2ºLProjection
🇨🇴Colombia2ºK1
🇭🇷Croatia2ºL1
40%
Advances🇨🇴Colombia· 55%Confidence: Medium
#841ºH vs 2ºJProjection
🇪🇸Spain1ºH2
🇦🇹Austria2ºJ0
70%
Advances🇪🇸Spain· 82%Confidence: High
#851ºB vs 3º changedProjection
🇨🇭Switzerland1ºB1
🇸🇳Senegal1
37%
Advances🇸🇳Senegal· 55%Confidence: Medium
#861ºJ vs 2ºHProjection
🇦🇷Argentina1ºJ2
🇺🇾Uruguay2ºH1
50%
Advances🇦🇷Argentina· 62%Confidence: High
#871ºK vs 3º changedProjection
🇵🇹Portugal1ºK2
🇵🇾Paraguay0
68%
Advances🇵🇹Portugal· 80%Confidence: High
#882ºD vs 2ºG changedProjection
🇦🇺Australia2ºD1
🇪🇬Egypt2ºG1
40%
Advances🇪🇬Egypt· 57%Confidence: Medium
Read

Warnings and featured matchups

⚠️ Warnings

  • As of this date only the 1st matchday has been played, so the bracket is mostly a projection based on our match-by-match predictions.
  • The 8 best third-placed teams come out of very tight tiebreakers: some spots are almost a coin toss.
  • The assignment of each third-placed team to its half follows a fixed FIFA table that may differ from this calculation due to group restrictions.

⭐ Featured matchups

  • Argentina vs Uruguay — the Río de la Plata derby, no less than in the Round of 32.
  • Portugal vs Ecuador — the Nations League champion against Ecuador's solid defense.
  • Colombia vs Croatia — Colombia, projected 2nd in Group K, would face Croatian experience.
  • Spain vs Austria — the European champion against the most in-form European side of Group J.

✈️ Travel note

In this projection Colombia finishes 2nd in Group K and would play the runner-up of Group L (Croatia). It depends on the actual result against Portugal on June 27: if Colombia wins and finishes 1st, the matchup and the venue may change.

Spots through the third-place window

The 8 best third-placed teams

  1. 1🇧🇦BosniaGroup B1 pts · 0 GD
  2. 2🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandGroup C0 pts · 0 GD
  3. 3🇵🇾ParaguayGroup D0 pts · 0 GD
  4. 4🇪🇨EcuadorGroup E0 pts · 0 GD
  5. 5🇸🇪SwedenGroup F0 pts · 0 GD
  6. 6🇸🇳SenegalGroup I0 pts · 0 GD
  7. 7🇩🇿AlgeriaGroup J0 pts · 0 GD
  8. 8🇨🇿Czech RepublicGroup A0 pts · -1 GD
Projection

Qualifiers by group

A🇲🇽Mexico🇰🇷South Korea🇨🇿Czech Republic
B🇨🇭Switzerland🇨🇦Canada🇧🇦Bosnia
C🇧🇷Brazil🇲🇦Morocco🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
D🇺🇸United States🇦🇺Australia🇵🇾Paraguay
E🇩🇪Germany🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇪🇨Ecuador
F🇳🇱Netherlands🇯🇵Japan🇸🇪Sweden
G🇧🇪Belgium🇪🇬Egypt🇮🇷Iran
H🇪🇸Spain🇺🇾Uruguay🇨🇻Cape Verde
I🇫🇷France🇳🇴Norway🇸🇳Senegal
J🇦🇷Argentina🇦🇹Austria🇩🇿Algeria
K🇵🇹Portugal🇨🇴Colombia🇨🇩DR Congo
L🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England🇭🇷Croatia🇬🇭Ghana