World Cup 2026 · Final stage
Road to the final
This is how the Round of 32 would look according to our match-by-match predictions. We update it as each matchday is played.
This is a projection. Until it is confirmed by real results, every matchup can change. We mark as «Confirmed» whatever is already settled. (analysis from July 2, 2026)
Published on Thu, Jul 2 at 10:25
KeyProjectionConfirmedPlayed
Left half
To the Round of 16
Right half
#851ºB vs 3ºConfirmed
45%
Advances🇨🇭Switzerland· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#861ºJ vs 2ºHConfirmed
88%
Advances🇦🇷Argentina· 92%Confidence: High
View analysis
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Warnings and featured matchups
⚠️ Warnings
- As of this date only the 1st matchday has been played, so the bracket is mostly a projection based on our match-by-match predictions.
- The 8 best third-placed teams come out of very tight tiebreakers: some spots are almost a coin toss.
- The assignment of each third-placed team to its half follows a fixed FIFA table that may differ from this calculation due to group restrictions.
⭐ Featured matchups
- Argentina vs Uruguay — the Río de la Plata derby, no less than in the Round of 32.
- Portugal vs Ecuador — the Nations League champion against Ecuador's solid defense.
- Colombia vs Croatia — Colombia, projected 2nd in Group K, would face Croatian experience.
- Spain vs Austria — the European champion against the most in-form European side of Group J.
✈️ Travel note
In this projection Colombia finishes 2nd in Group K and would play the runner-up of Group L (Croatia). It depends on the actual result against Portugal on June 27: if Colombia wins and finishes 1st, the matchup and the venue may change.
Spots through the third-place window
The 8 best third-placed teams
- 1🇧🇦BosniaGroup B0 pts · 0 GD
- 2🇵🇾ParaguayGroup D0 pts · 0 GD
- 3🇪🇨EcuadorGroup E0 pts · 0 GD
- 4🇸🇪SwedenGroup F0 pts · 0 GD
- 5🇸🇳SenegalGroup I0 pts · 0 GD
- 6🇩🇿AlgeriaGroup J0 pts · 0 GD
- 7🇨🇩DR CongoGroup K0 pts · 0 GD
- 8🇬🇭GhanaGroup L0 pts · 0 GD
Projection
Qualifiers by group
Group1st2nd3rd (best third)
A🇲🇽Mexico🇿🇦South Africa🇰🇷South Korea
B🇨🇭Switzerland🇨🇦Canada🇧🇦Bosnia
C🇧🇷Brazil🇲🇦Morocco🏴Scotland
D🇺🇸United States🇦🇺Australia🇵🇾Paraguay
E🇩🇪Germany🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇪🇨Ecuador
F🇳🇱Netherlands🇯🇵Japan🇸🇪Sweden
G🇧🇪Belgium🇪🇬Egypt🇮🇷Iran
H🇪🇸Spain🇨🇻Cape Verde🏳️—
I🇫🇷France🇳🇴Norway🇸🇳Senegal
J🇦🇷Argentina🇦🇹Austria🇩🇿Algeria
K🇨🇴Colombia🇵🇹Portugal🇨🇩DR Congo
L🏴England🇭🇷Croatia🇬🇭Ghana