World Cup 2026 · Final stage

Road to the final

This is how the Round of 32 would look according to our match-by-match predictions. We update it as each matchday is played.

This is a projection. Until it is confirmed by real results, every matchup can change. We mark as «Confirmed» whatever is already settled. (analysis from June 28, 2026)

KeyProjectionConfirmedPlayed
Left half
#732ºA vs 2ºB changedConfirmed
🇿🇦South Africa2ºA2
🇨🇦Canada2ºB1
44%
Advances🇨🇦Canada· 62%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#741ºE vs 3ºConfirmed
🇩🇪Germany1ºE2
🇵🇾Paraguay0
70%
Advances🇩🇪Germany· 82%Confidence: High
View analysis
#751ºF vs 2ºCConfirmed
🇳🇱Netherlands1ºF2
🇲🇦Morocco2ºC1
45%
Advances🇳🇱Netherlands· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#761ºC vs 2ºFConfirmed
🇧🇷Brazil1ºC2
🇯🇵Japan2ºF0
62%
Advances🇧🇷Brazil· 75%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#771ºI vs 3ºConfirmed
🇫🇷France1ºI2
🇸🇪Sweden1
60%
Advances🇫🇷France· 72%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#782ºE vs 2ºIConfirmed
🇨🇮Ivory Coast2ºE1
🇳🇴Norway2ºI1
37%
Advances🇳🇴Norway· 55%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#791ºA vs 3ºConfirmed
🇲🇽Mexico1ºA1
🇪🇨Ecuador1
42%
Advances🇲🇽Mexico· 55%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#801ºL vs 3ºConfirmed
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England1ºL2
🇨🇩DR Congo0
75%
Advances🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England· 88%Confidence: High
View analysis
To the Round of 16
Right half
#811ºD vs 3ºConfirmed
🇺🇸United States1ºD2
🇧🇦Bosnia1
52%
Advances🇺🇸United States· 62%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#821ºG vs 3º changedConfirmed
🇧🇪Belgium1ºG2
🇸🇳Senegal1
48%
Advances🇧🇪Belgium· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#832ºK vs 2ºLConfirmed
🇵🇹Portugal2ºK2
🇭🇷Croatia2ºL1
48%
Advances🇵🇹Portugal· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#841ºH vs 2ºJConfirmed
🇪🇸Spain1ºH2
🇦🇹Austria2ºJ0
70%
Advances🇪🇸Spain· 82%Confidence: High
View analysis
#851ºB vs 3º changedConfirmed
🇨🇭Switzerland1ºB1
🇩🇿Algeria1
45%
Advances🇨🇭Switzerland· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#861ºJ vs 2ºHConfirmed
🇦🇷Argentina1ºJ3
🇨🇻Cape Verde2ºH0
88%
Advances🇦🇷Argentina· 92%Confidence: High
View analysis
#871ºK vs 3ºConfirmed
🇨🇴Colombia1ºK2
🇬🇭Ghana0
68%
Advances🇨🇴Colombia· 78%Confidence: High
View analysis
#882ºD vs 2ºG changedConfirmed
🇦🇺Australia2ºD1
🇪🇬Egypt2ºG1
40%
Advances🇪🇬Egypt· 57%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
Read

Warnings and featured matchups

⚠️ Warnings

  • As of this date only the 1st matchday has been played, so the bracket is mostly a projection based on our match-by-match predictions.
  • The 8 best third-placed teams come out of very tight tiebreakers: some spots are almost a coin toss.
  • The assignment of each third-placed team to its half follows a fixed FIFA table that may differ from this calculation due to group restrictions.

⭐ Featured matchups

  • Argentina vs Uruguay — the Río de la Plata derby, no less than in the Round of 32.
  • Portugal vs Ecuador — the Nations League champion against Ecuador's solid defense.
  • Colombia vs Croatia — Colombia, projected 2nd in Group K, would face Croatian experience.
  • Spain vs Austria — the European champion against the most in-form European side of Group J.

✈️ Travel note

In this projection Colombia finishes 2nd in Group K and would play the runner-up of Group L (Croatia). It depends on the actual result against Portugal on June 27: if Colombia wins and finishes 1st, the matchup and the venue may change.

Spots through the third-place window

The 8 best third-placed teams

  1. 1🇧🇦BosniaGroup B0 pts · 0 GD
  2. 2🇵🇾ParaguayGroup D0 pts · 0 GD
  3. 3🇪🇨EcuadorGroup E0 pts · 0 GD
  4. 4🇸🇪SwedenGroup F0 pts · 0 GD
  5. 5🇸🇳SenegalGroup I0 pts · 0 GD
  6. 6🇩🇿AlgeriaGroup J0 pts · 0 GD
  7. 7🇨🇩DR CongoGroup K0 pts · 0 GD
  8. 8🇬🇭GhanaGroup L0 pts · 0 GD
Projection

Qualifiers by group

A🇲🇽Mexico🇿🇦South Africa🇰🇷South Korea
B🇨🇭Switzerland🇨🇦Canada🇧🇦Bosnia
C🇧🇷Brazil🇲🇦Morocco🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
D🇺🇸United States🇦🇺Australia🇵🇾Paraguay
E🇩🇪Germany🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇪🇨Ecuador
F🇳🇱Netherlands🇯🇵Japan🇸🇪Sweden
G🇧🇪Belgium🇪🇬Egypt🇮🇷Iran
H🇪🇸Spain🇨🇻Cape Verde🏳️
I🇫🇷France🇳🇴Norway🇸🇳Senegal
J🇦🇷Argentina🇦🇹Austria🇩🇿Algeria
K🇨🇴Colombia🇵🇹Portugal🇨🇩DR Congo
L🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England🇭🇷Croatia🇬🇭Ghana