World Cup 2026 · Final stage
Road to the final
This is how the Round of 32 would look according to our match-by-match predictions. We update it as each matchday is played.
This is a projection. Until it is confirmed by real results, every matchup can change. We mark as «Confirmed» whatever is already settled. (analysis from June 17, 2026)
Published on Wed, Jun 17 at 14:00
KeyProjectionConfirmedPlayed
Left half
#732ºA vs 2ºBProjection
40%
Advances🇰🇷South Korea· 55%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#741ºE vs 3ºProjection
72%
Advances🇩🇪Germany· 85%Confidence: High
View analysis
#751ºF vs 2ºCProjection
45%
Advances🇳🇱Netherlands· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#782ºE vs 2ºIProjection
38%
Advances🇸🇳Senegal· 55%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
To the Round of 16
Right half
#811ºD vs 3ºProjection
45%
Advances🇺🇸United States· 58%Confidence: Medium
View analysis
#851ºB vs 3ºProjection
35%
Advances🇸🇪Sweden· 52%Confidence: Low
View analysis
Read
Warnings and featured matchups
⚠️ Warnings
- As of this date only the 1st matchday has been played, so the bracket is mostly a projection based on our match-by-match predictions.
- The 8 best third-placed teams come out of very tight tiebreakers: some spots are almost a coin toss.
- The assignment of each third-placed team to its half follows a fixed FIFA table that may differ from this calculation due to group restrictions.
⭐ Featured matchups
- Argentina vs Uruguay — the Río de la Plata derby, no less than in the Round of 32.
- Portugal vs Ecuador — the Nations League champion against Ecuador's solid defense.
- Colombia vs Croatia — Colombia, projected 2nd in Group K, would face Croatian experience.
- Spain vs Austria — the European champion against the most in-form European side of Group J.
✈️ Travel note
In this projection Colombia finishes 2nd in Group K and would play the runner-up of Group L (Croatia). It depends on the actual result against Portugal on June 27: if Colombia wins and finishes 1st, the matchup and the venue may change.
Spots through the third-place window
The 8 best third-placed teams
- 1🇧🇦BosniaGroup B0 pts · 0 GD
- 2🇵🇾ParaguayGroup D0 pts · 0 GD
- 3🇪🇨EcuadorGroup E0 pts · 0 GD
- 4🇸🇪SwedenGroup F0 pts · 0 GD
- 5🇸🇳SenegalGroup I0 pts · 0 GD
- 6🇩🇿AlgeriaGroup J0 pts · 0 GD
- 7🇨🇩DR CongoGroup K0 pts · 0 GD
- 8🇬🇭GhanaGroup L0 pts · 0 GD
Projection
Qualifiers by group
Group1st2nd3rd (best third)
A🇲🇽Mexico🇿🇦South Africa🇰🇷South Korea
B🇨🇭Switzerland🇨🇦Canada🇧🇦Bosnia
C🇧🇷Brazil🇲🇦Morocco🏴Scotland
D🇺🇸United States🇦🇺Australia🇵🇾Paraguay
E🇩🇪Germany🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇪🇨Ecuador
F🇳🇱Netherlands🇯🇵Japan🇸🇪Sweden
G🇧🇪Belgium🇪🇬Egypt🇮🇷Iran
H🇪🇸Spain🇨🇻Cape Verde🏳️—
I🇫🇷France🇳🇴Norway🇸🇳Senegal
J🇦🇷Argentina🇦🇹Austria🇩🇿Algeria
K🇨🇴Colombia🇵🇹Portugal🇨🇩DR Congo
L🏴England🇭🇷Croatia🇬🇭Ghana